Cfrtjryk

Assume that:

1. The UK withdraws its Article 50 notice (or purports to do so) as the advocate general says it can.
   


2. The UK waits slightly longer than five minutes. Optionally, the UK holds a "people's vote" at this step, or does other things that would reasonably affect Brexit negotiations such as holding a general election.


3. The UK sends the EU notice pursuant to Article 50 that it intends to withdraw from the EU.


4. Said notice expressly disclaims that it is in any way a continuation of the previous Brexit process.

Does the "clock" start over at two years, or would the UK still have to leave in March 2019?

And if the clock does not start over, what if step 2 takes so long that it's April by the time we get to step 3?

This would probably end up in the Courts.

Assuming the ECJ concurs with the Advocate General, the decision to revoke an Article 50 notification must be done in Good Faith, and following proper constitutional processes.

A country that revokes the article 50 notification only as a delaying tactic is not acting in Good Faith, and the ECJ could rule that it was a "stunt" and not recognize it. On the other hand, if proper constitutional processes are followed, it might be allowed. One can imagine the EU27 allowing for a delay of several months for a second referendum, especially if they believe that it will result in the UK remaining in the EU.

In the situation you describe: revoking and the re-invoking months later, it would be clear to the that the revocation was not done in good faith and was merely a delaying tactic and it would the be up to the EU27 whether to allow the UK further time to negotiate or require the UK to leave at short notice.

If the UK and most but not all of the EU27 agreed that they need the extra time, maybe. (If all of the EU27 agreed, there would be easier ways to extend the negotiation.) If it was the UK idea to follow the letter of Article 50 while breaking the spirit, I would guess no.

• I believe that most of the people and governments in the EU27 would have preferred it if the UK had stayed as a member.


• That being said, the continuous opt-outs, rebates, and other special pleading got on people's nerves.


• There is an EU parliament election in May. The current assumption is that the UK are out by then. Changing things now will have all sorts of consequences.


• The next seven-year financial financial framework is being negotiated. If the UK wants to get back into these negotiations with the plan to leave before the framework is over, people will be not amused.

So if the only reason to pull this stunt is to get two more years of internal British logjam, the EU27 would find ways to make their displeasure felt.

Right now we are still waiting for a final, 100% decision whether the UK can withdraw its Article 50 notice at any time. This is due soon.

Politically, the EU wants to avoid a situation where the UK leaves without any deal (worst outcome for everyone, even though some in the UK are deluded enough to think it's not), so if no deal is signed on March 28th then the UK doesn't have to leave. They have an alternative which I think most on the UK would think is better. I think the EU has also stated that an extension of the time frame would be accepted without a problem, so on March 28th the UK could say "give us three more months".

The only reasonable way to withdraw from the Article 50 notice is for the UK to take a good time to decide what they really want, and what is really achievable, and then either stay in the EU, or give a second notice, but this time fully prepared, with a deal in hand that can be accepted really quickly. And since the proposed deal contains a "transitional period" to the end of 2020, that "transitional period" would likely not be needed, with the earliest realistic date for a new notice say end of 2019, with a leaving date around end of 2021.